Executive Search: Growing, Declining, or Just Drifting?

Executive Search: Growing, Declining, or Just Drifting?

What does an industry do when it’s not quite sure of its own future?

It releases conflicting reports, apparently.

That’s what happened this week with dueling updates from HSZ Media (link) and the Association of Executive Search Consultants (AESC). According to HSZ, North America is enjoying growth in executive search, while global markets are sliding. Meanwhile, AESC reports that North American declines aren’t as bad as expected.

Confused? So is the rest of the market.

That ambiguity speaks volumes. It reflects an industry still in flux—shifting slowly under the weight of change but hesitant to admit it.

A Matter of Credibility

Neither HSZ nor AESC is exactly a beacon of trust among top-tier recruiters. Their data may offer trendlines, but rarely the kind that drive meaningful insight. For different reasons—legacy perception in AESC’s case, and credibility questions in HSZ’s—their influence is more ambient than actionable.

Even longtime AESC leader Peter Felix was still predicting a full-blown rebound as recently as last year, citing the post-recession recovery. That prediction may yet pan out—perhaps in the next economic cycle. But the real story? Many large companies have already taken the executive search function in-house. The traditional model is being unbundled from the inside out.

For more context, here’s a previous take: Executive Search: Disrupted vs. Disrupters

Zooming In: What’s Really Happening

In the words of Al Pacino’s character in Any Given Sunday, the focus needs to be “six inches in front of your face.”

In the short term, disruption continues to define the search industry. Independent and boutique firms are holding strong in niche markets. Large firms—except one or two notable exceptions—are managing to meet targets at the top of the house.

Heidrick & Struggles, for example, has struggled to return to meaningful growth since the pre-recession era. Contrast that with Russell Reynolds, which continues to defy norms and carve out its own space.

So where does that leave us?

Some major companies are quietly edging back toward talent investment. The pace is slow—glacial, even—but real. Most are still clinging to old models and pushing back against rising pay for lateral hires. But the smart firms are positioning themselves to lead when the pendulum inevitably swings.

The Real Question: What Happens Next?

Will the next wave of executive turnover finally reset the market? Or has the traditional search cycle stalled for good?

Conventional wisdom holds that changing business cycles spark new leadership shifts—and new opportunities for search firms. But turnover rates have been historically flat in recent years, even as market forces shift.

If this next stretch does indeed bring change, it could be a chance for the executive search industry to rediscover its relevance. If not, we may see more headlines, more reports—and fewer answers.